Introduction

To finish my liberal studies in Earth, Environment & Global Sustainability, I was looking for a project that would combine both my analytical skills and my interest in environmental sustainability. From a course about the history of Boston, I learned that part of Boston was land-filled by carving down nearby mountains. I then became interested in looking at the risks associated with a possible catastrophe.
Exploring my options, I decided to estimate the financial risk after an earthquake in Back Bay, Boston which was almost entirely filled in. Though the risk of earthquake is not as prevalent on the east coast compared to the west coast, buildings were built without a potential earthquake in mind. I used San Francisco as my point of comparison since the city by the bay was also built on a substantial amount of landfill and have experienced many earthquakes in the past.
I used a program called HAZUS developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) in order to estimate the loss exposure posed by vulnerable infrastructure. Certain assumptions and point of comparison were made including Cape Ann earthquake happened in 1755, proportion of commercial to residential buildings, and value of assets at risk.

Main Findings

• Primary risk is caused by liquefaction. Most susceptible soil type D per Geological Survey classification is prevalent in Back Bay. Due to the earth shaking, water pressure increases in saturated soil. Once the water pressure increases, soil particles can readily move with respect to each other.
• Buildings in Back Bay make up a total dollar exposure of about 9.9 billion. Wood and masonry buildings are most at risk with the latter incurring the most direct economic loss of 12.5 million dollars.
• According to AIR Worldwide, the cost associated with an earthquake will most likely not be paid by insurance companies but by taxpayers through the form of disaster relief fund.

Conclusion

It is important for homeowners, business owners, landlords, institutions and insurance companies in the Back Bay area to have a quantifiable measurement of the earthquake risk they partake. Understanding the economic and social impacts caused by an earthquake will be crucial in preemptive planning for future catastrophes. Most importantly, the great potential loss by buildings urges urban planners, the authority and engineers to strive for more stable structure and designs that could greatly decrease the amount of dollar loss. Though the risk posed by liquefaction is almost unavoidable since the whole of Back Bay is already developed and buildings are closely located, there are techniques mentioned that should be implemented in newly developed areas. Though the risk is small, companies and the government should bear watch and update the estimated cost often. They also need to require stricter building standards that would make the buildings withstand the impact of earthquakes.